A major new study published on 27 April 2026 in BMJ Public Health has produced the clearest evidence yet that longer licensed hours in the UK push up both crime and alcohol-related ambulance call-outs. The ELEPHANT study (Evaluating Later and Expanded Premises Hours for Alcohol in the Night-time Economy), led by the University of Stirling with the University of Sheffield and University of Glasgow, tracked what happened when bars and nightclubs in Aberdeen and Glasgow were allowed to trade later at night.
For anyone running a late-night venue, or commissioning door supervision and event security in a town centre, the headline finding is uncomfortable but useful: more trading hours does not just mean more revenue. It means measurably more harm on the street, and that harm lands first on door staff, security teams and frontline emergency services.
What the study actually measured
ELEPHANT is the first UK study of its kind. Researchers analysed two natural experiments in Scotland. In Aberdeen, 38 pubs and bars were granted extensions of up to two hours, taking some venues to 3am, between March 2017 and October 2020. In Glasgow, ten nightclubs received a one-hour extension to 4am from April 2019 onwards. The team used a controlled interrupted time series design, comparing the affected areas against control sites where licensing hours did not change.
The Aberdeen findings are the most striking. On weekend nights, alcohol-related ambulance call-outs rose by 11.4 per cent. Reported crimes rose by 8.5 per cent. The peak time for alcohol-related ambulances shifted an hour later, from the midnight to 1am window into 1am to 2am. The Glasgow data did not show statistically measurable changes, although local stakeholders reported that the 4am extension placed frontline services under severe strain.
Why the Aberdeen and Glasgow results differ
The differing results are not a contradiction. They are a clue. Aberdeen extended hours across a broad cluster of venues; Glasgow extended hours at a small number of nightclubs already operating late. The ELEPHANT team’s interpretation is that the scale and concentration of late-trading premises matters, not just whether any individual venue stays open later.
Professor Niamh Fitzgerald, the principal investigator, said that “local authorities need greater powers to control the number and type of venues that are allowed to open later at night because large-scale extensions will result in increased health harms and crimes.” For licensing committees, that is a clear steer. For venue operators and security teams, it is a planning input that should already be reflected in how the front door is staffed.
What this means for late-night venues and event organisers
The practical implications for security planning are concrete. Three points stand out.
Staff for the new peak, not the old one. If your venue has applied for, or sits next to others with, extended hours, the highest-risk window has shifted later. Door supervision rotas built around an old midnight to 1am peak will leave the most volatile period of the night under-resourced. Cover the 1am to 2am window with full strength and plan handover, breaks and dispersal management around it.
Plan dispersal as a security function, not an afterthought. A later closing time means a denser, more intoxicated, more fatigued crowd hitting the street at the same moment as taxi and night-bus capacity falls. Trained door supervisors who stay engaged through dispersal, in coordination with neighbouring venues, do more to reduce ambulance call-outs and recorded crime than any single intervention inside the building.
Treat the venue cluster, not just your premises. The ELEPHANT data points to cumulative impact: a single venue’s hours matter less than the surrounding density of late-trading premises. Operators who share information with neighbouring venues, local police licensing officers and street pastors will manage risk far more effectively than those who plan their door in isolation.
The wider picture for UK licensing
ELEPHANT lands in the same year as the Crime and Policing Act, Martyn’s Law statutory guidance and the SIA’s strategic review. Together, the direction of travel is clear. Regulators expect venues to take a more evidence-based view of risk, to staff accordingly and to demonstrate it. A licensing committee or insurer asking why a venue applied for extended hours without a corresponding uplift in trained door supervision now has peer-reviewed UK data to point to.
For our late-night and event clients, the answer is not to oppose extended trading. It is to plan for it honestly. The economic case for longer hours has to sit alongside an equally honest assessment of the staffing, supervision and dispersal capacity needed to keep customers, staff and neighbours safe.
Need a security review?
If you operate a late-night venue, run a festival or events programme, or sit on a licensing committee that is weighing extended-hours applications, our team can review your current door supervision and event security arrangements against the evidence the ELEPHANT study has now put on the table.
We are SIA-approved and operate across London and the wider UK. Our consultants can audit your current rota and dispersal plan, recommend changes that match your actual risk window, and provide trained door supervisors and event security officers where required.
To arrange a review, call 020 3700 0967, email info@secureonsitesecurity.co.uk or visit our contact page. You can also read more about our security guard hire and event security services.
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